HUKMIDDIN KAMARZODA: COMPARED TO LAST YEAR, BIRTH REGISTRATION IN THE COUNTRY HAS INCREASED

The collection, consolidation, and effective analysis of demographic statistics and related indicators create favorable conditions for determining the prospects of the country’s socio-economic development and improving the population’s well-being.

Demographic indicators play a key role in ensuring national benchmarks within the framework of the National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2030, the Medium-Term Development Program for 2021–2025, as well as in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals and monitoring their implementation, serving as a primary source of statistical information.

The magazine Harfi Omor interviewed Hukmiddin Kamarzoda, Head of the Department of Demographic, Labor and Social Statistics of the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, about the latest demographic statistics of the country. Below, we present the key points of this conversation to our readers.

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– Please tell us about the main areas of activity of the Department of Demographic, Labor and Social Statistics of the Agency on Statistics during the first four months of 2025. At what level is the Department’s work organized?

During the four months of the current year, the Department has generally carried out its activities effectively. All tasks stipulated by the Statistical Work Program for the specified period were fully and qualitatively completed.

In particular, the registration of households and the rural population as of January 1, 2025, was completed, taking into account changes in the names and administrative boundaries of rural jamoats and settlements.

Additionally, the annual summary tables were processed, specifically:

• on population migration — at the regional and district levels, broken down by gender and age, as well as international migration by country and nationality;
• on birth registration — broken down by regions and districts, by gender, age of mother, nationality, and birth order;
• on death registration — by region and district, gender, age, causes of death (according to ICD-10), and education level;
• on marriage registration — by gender, age, and marital status at the regional, city, and district levels.

Based on preliminary results from processing civil status acts (birth, death, marriage, divorce) and data on permanent population migration for 2024, analytical materials on the demographic situation in the Republic of Tajikistan for 2024 were prepared and published in the report “Socio-Economic Situation of the Republic of Tajikistan” for January–December 2024.

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– As we know, last year the household registry books were fully digitized, which is an important step in implementing the concept of e-government. What is your view on this?

Last year, thanks to the ongoing efforts of the Agency’s leadership and all its employees, innovations were introduced, and major changes occurred that allowed the national statistical bodies to keep pace with modern demands. It was in 2024 that all statistical reports were converted into electronic form, and the digitalization of household registry books in jamoats was fully completed, which is a major achievement in this field.

The digitalization of household registry books is considered very important in modernizing the national statistics system. In this regard, it is worth noting that on May 31, 2018, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan adopted Resolution No. 291 “On Providing Local Self-Government Bodies of Townships and Rural Settlements with Household Registry Books for 2018–2022” to create a unified statistical information database on the rural population and other indicators based on household books, which was to support the transition to electronic registry books. Under this resolution, similar orders were issued by the heads of regions, cities, and districts of the country.

Officials in the jamoats clearly welcomed the transition to electronic household books, noting such benefits as timely receipt of statistical information and ease in processing citizens’ inquiries.

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– The household budget survey is one of the most important studies conducted by statistical bodies. What is the main objective of this survey, and what can be forecasted based on the information obtained in this area?

The Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan has achieved significant progress in transitioning to an electronic system of statistical data collection, especially in the area of household surveys, starting in 2015. All statistical surveys since then have been conducted using tablets.

It should be noted that the household budget survey is the only national survey and statistical source used to assess the country’s welfare level, population income and expenditure, the availability of food and non-food goods and services, assess poverty levels, food insecurity, calculate the size of the middle class, as well as other indicators related to healthcare, education, and other expenditures.

Regarding statistical work on the household budget survey, it is important to mention that the data for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year 2024 have been prepared. Based on these data, indicators of population income and expenses, as well as actual consumption by types of food products for 2024, were calculated. The data for the fourth quarter of 2024 were prepared based on key tables related to income and expenses, as well as expenditure and consumption structure. Taking into account information provided by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan on public budget spending on the social sector, as well as data from the National Bank on microcredit provision to households and income from savings and shares, the monetary income and expenditure indicators for the population in 2024 were recalculated.

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– Could you provide a brief overview of the demographic situation in the country?

Taking into account births, deaths, and migration, the population (according to preliminary estimates) as of April 1, 2025, was 10,546,500 people, which is 2.0% more compared to the same period in 2024.

Population by region:

• Khatlon Region — 3,805,800
• Sughd Region — 2,975,800
• Districts of Republican Subordination — 2,257,300
• Dushanbe — 1,272,400
• GBAO (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region) — 235,200

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– What was the level of natural population growth during this period?

From January to March 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, birth registration in the republic increased by 1.5%. An increase in birth registration was observed in all regions except Sughd Region.

Specifically:

• Khatlon Region — +2.4% (24,400 births)
• GBAO — +16.8% (752 births)
• Districts of Republican Subordination — +2.3% (13,600 births)
• Dushanbe — +1.6% (6,000 births)
• Sughd Region — -1.7% (13,100 births)

Also, the death registration from January to March 2025 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year and amounted to 8,700 deaths.

Increase observed in:

• Khatlon Region — +7.8% (3,000 deaths)
• Dushanbe — +0.4% (817 deaths)

Decrease recorded in:

• Sughd Region — -0.3% (2,900 deaths)
• Districts of Republican Subordination — -2.6% (1,600 deaths)
• GBAO — -16.1% (188 deaths)

According to preliminary data, from January to March 2025, natural population growth increased by 1.5% compared to the same period in 2024 and amounted to 49,300 people, which corresponds to 18.9 per 1,000 population.

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– In recent years, the rise in divorces among young families has raised public concern. What were the marriage and divorce statistics in the first quarter of 2025? Compared to last year — did they increase or decrease?

The number of marriages registered by the Civil Registry Offices (ZAGS) in the republic from January to March 2025 decreased by 3.8% compared to the same period in 2024 and amounted to 18,300 couples. The gross marriage rate in January–March 2025 was 7.0 per 1,000 population.

The number of divorces registered by ZAGS in the republic from January to March 2025 decreased by 8.7% and amounted to 2,100 couples. The gross divorce rate in this period was 0.8 per 1,000 population.

Family breakdown during this period was more often observed in Sughd Region, where the divorce rate reached 1.2 per 1,000 population.

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– Thank you for the interview!

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