Program for statistical development

State Statistical Committee:

Programme for statistical development

Multi-annual Integrated Statistical Programme (PDF)

The process for preparing the Multi-annual Integrated Statistical Programme (MISP) started in June 2004 with assistance of Alex Korns, the international consultant . Proposed tasks were based on IMF recommendations (ROSC), recommendations of other consultants (especially Aleksey Ponomarenko and Joseph Olenski) and wide consultation with subject matter units in Goskomstat. Selection of priority tasks was largely based on the three goals specified in the Paris 21 framework – that is, macroeconomic monitoring, monitoring of poverty, and other data priorities in the framework of the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).

The major strategic objectives for the MISP process is to upgrade Goskomstat methodological skills and automate its work across the board, while meeting the basic requirements for monitoring the macroeconomic situation and poverty, and the other major objectives of the GDDS.

The objectives will be reached by applying the following principles (corresponding to the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics):

To make data available by improved, impartial dissemination
To improve data reliability
To ensure the practical relevance of statistical data
To ensure transparency of methods
To ensure confidential treatment of data

A higher-level vision for the statistical system can be formulated as: The system of official statistics in the Republic of Tajikistan shall contribute to the process of economic development and social and democratic reform by providing reliable and relevant information on the problems of society in support of fact based decisions.

The main priorities for the coming years are:

To update and develop the IT infrastructure;
To automate data capture and implement standard validation methods;
To improve dissemination and user contact;
To improve basic methodological skills, especially in sampling and seasonal adjustment;
To improve the national accounts;
To improve poverty data;
To implement international systems of classification.

The development of official statistics in Tajikistan requires a fundamental effort to strengthen methodological skills, as well as to build up certain divisions that will play a leading role in collecting priority data – more specifically the divisions for national accounts, for the business registry, for prices and household incomes, for methodology and for economic analysis. Total staff in these divisions, which now number only around 20 persons, needs to be increased by at least another 20 persons.

The development of IT infrastructure and competencies is fundamental in order to improve efficiency. The computerization of regional offices opens up the opportunity that raw data from respondents can be entered into databases and validated in the rayon, instead of merely being summarized in ‘svodi’ for transmission to higher levels. The databases thus created can be adjusted for nonresponse (for the first time) and tabulated at Goskomstat with standard and adhoc queries. Tabulations can also be sent to the regions for sharing with local government.

A major upgrading of the IT infrastructure (hardware, software, and networking) is urgently needed, combined with increased skills in the use of IT tools throughout the organisation. This upgrading will support many of the specific statistical activities in the plan. It is also urgent to eliminate unnecessary work and automate the remaining work, to free up resources for new tasks.

The main subcomponents of improving policy, regulatory and institutional framework are:

Improving relationship with decisions makers/administrations;
Improving dissemination in general and obtaining more feedback from users;
Reallocating resources within Goskomstat;
Strengthening human resources development.

Goskomstat will work to give a wider range of users easy access to statistics, by improving publications and the web site.

The major actions in the field of statistical infrastructure development are concentrated on:

Upgrading the national register of establishments;
Implementing of international classifications;
Learning skills in sampling;
Learning skills in seasonal adjustment;
Learning skills in evaluating and improving data quality.

Register use and data collection

The main source for the updating of the registry is the legal obligation to register with Goskomstat (among other agencies) when setting up a new enterprise or establishment. This registry should be the basis for the systematic monitoring of response and nonresponse for the system of annual, monthly and quarterly statistical surveys in the economic field. The business census will check on the activity status and the activity code of each unit, and add unregistered businesses.

Classifications

Harmonisation of national classifications with international standards, is a requirement to ensure improved quality of the national statistics system and especially to provide comparability with international statistics. The national accounts division needs to receive data using the international classifications from other divisions in order to be able to process the data as required by SNA standards. Goskomstat will appoint a working group to supervise the implementation while acquiring related methodological skills by way of seminars and on the job training.

Sampling

During the project, Goskomstat will set up a working group to master sampling skills. Basic skills would be learned in training sessions with consultants, study tours, and on-the-job training.

Seasonal adjustment

Two visits by an international consultant are planned to introduce seasonal adjustment software and to train the working group in its use. The second visit would take place 12 or more months after the first, to enable the consultant to address problems raised by staff after a year of experience in the use of the program.

Data quality

The creation of databases in place of stepwise summaries will open new possibilities for evaluating and upgrading data quality in such ways as:

Validation of the data during data entry.
Nonresponse adjustment.
Preparation of technical notes for each data series, describing methods and documenting quality issues like nonresponse adjustment.

Basic actions in MISP frame

System of national accounts:

To upgrade the annual accounts, with special attention to improved coordination with balance of payments data, commodity flow techniques, and improved estimation of expenditures in constant prices;
To improve methodologies and estimations for the non-observed economy, including illegal economic activity;
To prepare time series on quarterly Gross Domestic Product with seasonal adjustments;
To improve estimates of Gross National Income, taking account of labour migration;
To prepare a work plan for the creation of GDP measures at the oblast level, including a list of data requirements.
To begin preparation of the country’s first input-output table, a step that will only be feasible once GKS has implemented international classifications for activities and commodities.

Price statistics:

To improve the calculation of Consumer Price Index, by enlarging the basket of goods covered and by upgrading methodology;
To improve the calculation of the Producer Price Index, by enlarging the basket of goods covered and by upgrading methodology;
To use seasonal adjustment for selected components of both indexes;
To prepare comparative measures of living costs under the International Comparisons Program (ICP);
To prepare an index of agricultural prices.

Industrial statistics:

To implement the Tajikistan classification system for economic activities (based on ISIC) and a consistent system for commodities, which will serve as a basis for the development of the main industrial indicators;
To improve monthly calculations of the Index of Industrial Production with value added weights, methodological upgrading, and seasonal adjustment;
To implement sample surveys of small industrial enterprises, particularly informal ones producing simple commodities like bread and vegetable oil.

Investment and construction statistics:

To investigate the widespread understatement of the value of construction activity and look for ways to measure it;
To develop a workable index of construction costs.

Domestic trade statistics:

To improve estimates of the volume of retail trade in the non-organised trade sector;
To survey expenditures by vendors (up to now, only sales measured);
To rationalize sample size for the semi-annual survey of retail trade in markets, which currently comprises 42,000 vendors, or 10% of the population of vendors in markets;
To carry out a survey of energy use by establishments.

External trade statistics for goods and services:

To develop quarterly unit-price indexes for exports and imports and quarterly constant price measures of exports and imports;
To obtain more comprehensive data from the Customs Service, including data on the number of units imported where relevant (cars, planes, etc.), in addition to value and tons.

Statistics of transport, services and tourism:

To carry out a survey of automobile owners to capture the informal provision of transportation services;
To survey consumers of services to learn of their expenditures for services provided by the informal economy;
To conduct a survey of tourist facilities

Environment statistics:

To establish a plan for developing environmental statistics based on a study of user requirements and existing methodologies and data sources

Agriculture statistics:

To rationalize the program of surveys by eliminating unnecessary questions and forms and developing new forms that are more suitable for individual farmers;
To carry out a sample survey of the 18,000 dekhan farmers (those with regular employees), now covered by an obligatory report.
To improve the sample surveys for small, non-dekhan farm households, especially by redesigning the sample, now excessively large (75,000), and by reviewing the questionnaire to obtain more comprehensive production data;
To review the method for estimating gross farm product in constant prices, in part by means of a study tour;
To apply seasonal adjustments to quarterly and monthly production data.

Demographic statistics:

To master a method for measuring infant and maternal mortality by way of household interviews, and to test out the chosen method in a single rayon;
To carry out a nationwide survey of infant and maternal mortality in a sample of rayon based on the method tested in the pilot. Results to be used for adjusting administrative measures of mortality, which are believed to widely understate infant mortality.

2010 Census of Population:

Make a work plan for census preparations that takes account of new technologies especially for data capture and the production of census maps;
Develop a specific plan for the IT side of the census;
Provide equipment, software, training and satellite images for preparing census maps using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and a Geographic Information System (GIS);
Provide equipment and training for experimental data entry by use of a scanner and OCR during the pilot census, to test feasibility for full census;
Support the preparation of tabulation routines for producing tables for the country and for regions using a suitable program such as CS Pro.

Labour force statistics:

To continue the LFS for the four quarters of 2005, as a followup to the first such survey in 2004 (it is anticipated that routine Government funding would become available for continuing the survey after 2005);
To establish a new sample for a permanent LFS;
To use the data to analyze labor migration outside Tajikistan and prepare estimates of the time spent in informal economic activity.

Social statistics:

To propose a clear poverty line for the country and oblasts, based on a minimum nutrition basket;
To upgrade the Household Budget Survey (HBS) sample and methodology in order to develop quarterly poverty measures consistent with international standards;
To conduct a survey of affluent households for measuring the unobserved economy;
To carry out a wider household survey in 2008 to obtain more comprehensive poverty data for the country and for small groups of rayon, within oblasts.

Education statistics:

To adapt and implement the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). An interagency working group would be set up with the Ministries of Labor and of Education, and other interested agencies. A national version of ISCED would be prepared and implemented by common agreement.

Health statistics:

To develop and test a question or set of questions for households concerning their access to clean water;
To develop and test a question or set of questions for households concerning women’s access to reproductive health services.

	State Statistical Committee:
	Programme for statistical development