Food security and Poverty Information Bulletin for 3 quarter 2005 (PDF)


Growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was positive and amounted to 5.1% in January-September 2005 as compared to January-September 2004. The growth of GDP was determined by growth in industrial production (8.5%), gross agricultural production (3.1%), retail trade turnover (11.6%), and paid services to population (11.5%).


Growth in gross plant production during nine months of the current year as compared to growth in the previous year was insignificant (1.7%).  The low growth was caused by reduction of raw cotton production (41.2% as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year). At the same time, production of some agricultural products increased as follows: grain - by 14.6%, potatoes - by 17.1%, vegetables - by 10.6%, melons - by 28.6%, fruits - by 16.8%, and grapes - by 16.4%. During this period, gross animal production increased by 6.8% due to increase in production of meat (6.7%), milk (5.5%), and eggs (28.9%).  In general, during the third quarter of 2005, the weather conditions were favorable for agricultural production, except for first half of July, when mud floods took place in many rivers of the republic and caused significant damage to Tajikistanís economy. As a result, 40 cattle farms, and 5 thsd. hectares if agricultural crops were destroyed. First and beginning of second decade of August were characterized by cool weather. Second and third decades of the month were characterized by settled hot weather , with average daily air temperature in valleys by 1-3 degrees above the norm. Average monthly water discharge of the most rivers was below and near the normal (70-120%). September was characterized by dry warm temperature. At the same time, due to unfavorable spring weather conditions and late maturing of agricultural crops, fall-ploughing was carried out by 15 days later than in the last year on the area of 2617 hectares (63% of the level of the previous year).


As compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, amount of sowed seeds decreased by 12706 (or 54%) tons for  cereal crop and leguminous, of which by 12404 tons (or 55%) for wheat .


Prices of wheat began to decline in the second and third quarters of 2005 as compared to the first quarter. However, in the third quarter of 2005 in comparison with the third quarter of 2004 both wholesale and retail prices for wheat increased. During nine months of 2005, imports of wheat increased by 3.8 times as compared to the similar period of the previous year.


Usually, in second quarter of a year prices of potatoes come down, but in the second quarter of 2005, they increased significantly due to bad weather conditions and late maturing. In the third quarter of 2005 the price of potatoes remained on the level of the second quarter.


Share of food products in the total value of exports of Tajikistan accounted for 2.9% and 3.1% in January-September of 2004 and 2005, respectively. The share of food products in total volume of imports was higher by more than 3 times and accounted for 8.4% and 11.7% during nine months of 2004 and 2005, respectively. Imports of food products in January-September of 2005 increased by 1.5 times as compared to January-September of 2004.


Consumer prices for food products increased by 6.8% during nine months of 2005. The highest increase of prices was registered for rice, carrot, potatoes, cabbage, granulated sugar, beef, evaporated milk formula, pearl barley, spaghetti, etc. At the same time, the highest decrease of prices was registered for onion, eggs, light wheat flour,  cotton oil, and some other products. Monthly inflation rate in consumerís sector made up 0.63% (against 0.48% in the corresponding period of the previous year).


In real terms (deflated by the CPI) cash incomes increased by 19.9% in the first half of 2005, the gap between the average incomes of the highest and the lowest income deciles remains significant (11.3 times). The gap between expenditures of the highest and the lowest deciles in the first half of 2005 decreased  to 5.8 times from 6.0 times in the first half of 2004.


In all regions of Tajikistan consumption of bread and bread products exceeds approved medical norm by 16%; in total structure of householdís expenditures for food, bread and bread products occupies the first place (28.2%). Pensioners spend about 80% of total consumer expenditures for food.


Amount of compensations paid to low-income families with children studying in secondary schools  during nine months of 2005 reached 7645.6 thsd.somoni (104.5% of plan). Compensations were paid to 406260 pupils (25% of all pupils).


In the third quarter of 2005, incidence of infection diseases among population increased by 16.1%, and by 9.4% among children of 0-14 years old. Decrease in incidence of acute enteric infections by 15% was observed during this period, while among children of 0-14 years old this indicator increased by 20.6%. At the same time, number of cases of bacterial dysentery increased by 1.7 times (by 28.5 times among children of 0-14 years old). The most adverse months were July and August of 2005. In September of the current year, incidence of acute enteric infections decreased almost by 50%.